S&P 500: The Winners and Losers of March 2026
S&P 500: The Winners and Losers of March 2026
After gaining 1.45% in January and dipping 0.87% in February, March is where the drawdown accelerated. The S&P 500 finished the month down 4.98%, closing at 6,528.52 on March 31. A late-month rally helped stabilize the tape on the final trading day, but the damage was widespread.
What made March feel like a “crash” to many investors was the combination of weak breadth and extreme dispersion. Only about 79 names posted positive returns versus 423 that declined — roughly 84% of S&P 500 components fell during the month.
The macro story was dominated by the Iran conflict. A rapid deterioration in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent crude and product flows plunging from around 20 million barrels per day to a trickle. Oil prices surged toward $100 per barrel, IEA member countries released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, and markets repriced inflation risk, reigniting stagflation fears and undermining expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Below, we break down the biggest winners and losers of March and what drove those moves.
Top S&P 500 Performers of March 2026
March’s biggest winners were companies most levered to the energy and supply-chain shock. LyondellBasell, APA Corporation, and Dow Inc. each rallied roughly 36% to 40%, benefiting from constrained global supply and war-driven repricing.
LyondellBasell ($LYB) +40%
LyondellBasell led the S&P 500 in March as the Iran conflict choked petrochemical supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, driving plastics pricing sharply higher.
In a March 17 investor presentation, CFO Agustin Izquierdo described “supply and logistics disruptions” and positioned North American production as “increasing in value” as Asia and Middle East capacity became constrained. The company highlighted rapidly rising spot pricing across polyethylene, polypropylene, and oxyfuels, and signaled intent to maximize operating rates to meet global supply shortfalls.
LyondellBasell entered 2026 after what management characterized as a prolonged industry downturn. In February, CEO Peter Vanacker had announced a large dividend reduction, framing it as a “recalibration” while prioritizing cost reductions and positioning for recovery. March’s war-driven pricing shock revived earnings sensitivity in a part of Materials where disrupted trade flows can reprice margins quickly.
APA Corporation ($APA) +39.7%
APA Corporation surged nearly 40% as oil and gas producers became one of the market’s main beneficiaries of the energy shock. With Hormuz exports running at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels, upstream-levered equities attracted aggressive inflows.
APA entered March with a solid operational narrative already in place. In its February 25 earnings release, the company highlighted production levels, free cash flow generation, debt reduction, and a 2026 capital plan emphasizing portfolio high-grading and balance sheet strengthening.
In early March, APA also announced a dual listing on Nasdaq Texas, with CEO John J. Christmann IV tying the move to the company’s Texas roots and Permian Basin connections. While not a primary driver of a near 40% move, it reinforced visibility at a moment when energy exposures were being repriced across the market.
Dow Inc. ($DOW) +35.5%
Dow rose more than 35% as war-driven disruptions sent plastics pricing to multi-year highs. Large producers including Dow passed through significant price increases amid tightened supply and higher input costs.
The rally was supported by a company-specific catalyst as well. On January 29, Dow announced “Transform to Outperform,” targeting at least $2 billion in near-term operating EBITDA improvement through simplification, cost structure reset, and modernization, including leveraging AI and automation. In its fourth-quarter 2025 results released the same day, Dow positioned the transformation as a step-change initiative aimed at materially improving earnings power through the cycle.
In a month where investors rewarded perceived winners of war-driven repricing and punished uncertainty elsewhere, the combination of petrochemical pricing dynamics and a credible operational reset story helped Dow stand out.
Worst S&P 500 Performers of March 2026
March’s steepest declines came not from macro exposure but from idiosyncratic risk landing at exactly the wrong time: deal uncertainty, regulatory overhang, and legal-compliance shocks. The Estée Lauder Companies, Paramount Skydance Corporation, and Super Micro Computer each fell roughly 30% to 34%.
The Estée Lauder Companies ($EL) −34.4%
Estée Lauder was March’s worst performer, falling more than 34% as transaction-related uncertainty compounded a weak sector backdrop.
On March 23, the company confirmed it was in discussions regarding a potential business combination with Puig, while emphasizing that no final decision had been made and no agreement had been reached. That kind of statement tends to increase uncertainty rather than resolve it, especially in a market already pricing higher risk premia.
Earlier in March, Estée Lauder also announced an agreement to acquire the remaining interests in Forest Essentials, with the deal expected to close in the second half of 2026. While strategically coherent in isolation, the juxtaposition of multiple corporate actions pressured sentiment as investors de-risked.
The sector backdrop offered no support either — Consumer Staples fell 7.39% in March, indicating broad pressure before accounting for single-stock news.
Paramount Skydance Corporation ($PARA) −33.2%
Paramount Skydance declined more than 33% as its massive acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery became an equity headwind in risk-off conditions.
On February 27, the company announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire WBD for $31.00 per share in cash, valuing the target at an enterprise value of $110 billion with a targeted Q3 2026 close. The deal involved a complex financing package with major equity and debt commitments.
As March progressed, regulatory scrutiny intensified. Warner Bros. Discovery set a special shareholder meeting for April 23, and late-month reporting indicated the U.S. Department of Justice escalated its antitrust investigation by issuing subpoenas.
Paramount was an acquirer with a high-dollar transaction moving through a tightening regulatory funnel during a month when investors were already repricing geopolitical tail risk — a combination that explains the sharp decline even as parts of the market found beneficiaries of the energy shock.
Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) −29.7%
Super Micro fell nearly 30% after a sudden legal and compliance shock tied to export controls.
On March 19, the U.S. Justice Department announced that an indictment had been unsealed charging three individuals with conspiring to divert high-performance AI servers to China, alleging elaborate methods to evade export laws including dummy servers and transshipment schemes.
Super Micro issued a statement the same day confirming it had been informed of the indictment, noting that the company itself was not named as a defendant. It placed two employees on administrative leave, terminated its relationship with a contractor, and emphasized its commitment to export compliance and cooperation with the investigation.
Even though Super Micro was not directly charged, the governance and legal-risk overhang was enough to drive a nearly 30% decline in March’s already fragile tape.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The content is based on publicly available information and reflects the author’s opinions as of the publication date, which may change without notice. All investments carry inherent risks, including the potential loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. BBAE holds no position in the securities mentioned, nor are they compensated by the companies mentioned.
